Dividend Mantra

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Recent Buy

By 55 Comments

I didn’t actually plan on purchasing any more equities for the month of September. I was quite satisfied with initiating an investment in Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) and the addition of additional shares in my burgeoning position in Baxter International Inc. (BAX). However, sometimes I’m compelled to purchase equity when the market punishes shares in a company for one reason for another. When Mr. Market is feeling depressed about a particular security and the fundamentals remain reasonably appealing, I’m feeling positively joyous.

As part of my Recent Buy series, I try to let my readers know of any equities I purchase soon after the transaction is completed. This is just one way I try to document my progress toward early retirement and financial independence.

I purchased 20 shares of Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR) on 10/31/13 for $46.74 per share.

This was an interesting purchase for me. I actually wasn’t particularly interested in adding to my DLR position at all. I never planned on it being a large position, and instead due to the risks involved and exposure to heavily changing technology pursued a strategy to keep it as a low weighting within my portfolio. You could make a case this is a falling knife, but shares have actually been recovering quite nicely over the last few weeks. Up until Wednesday, that is. On October 30, shares were down over 15%. Quite the horror if you’re a shareholder like myself. Shares were down another 5% or so at one point on Thursday. That’s when I decided to take a stand: do I believe in this company or not?

I revisited my original thesis, as I laid out when I published my purchases of shares in DLR back in June for $59.34 per share and August for $54.75 per share. I view the future as bright for this company as data usage continues to be consumed at exponential rates and DLR appears to be well positioned in key markets around the globe to take advantage of this trend and data center outsourcing. The reasons for investing haven’t really changed since then and fundamentals are basically the same, but DLR did have a rough Q3 – which explains much of the recent weakness.

DLR reported third quarter results Tuesday after the bell, and to state the obvious the market didn’t like what DLR had to say. Diluted FFO came in at $1.10 per share, which is less than $1.13 per share in Q312. Without a non-cash adjustment to core FFO due to rent expense adjustment from a New York property, FFO would have been $1.16 per share. That would certainly be better, but still would have missed analyst expectations of $1.20 per share. I view quarterly misses as great opportunities to invest in high quality companies at opportune times; maybe the miss was slight, maybe not – but analyst expectations aren’t always reasonable anyway. Sometimes great businesses have a rough quarter or two.

However, DLR appears to be guiding future FFO down a bit, with a narrow guidance for 2013 FFO at $4.60-$4.62, down from $4.73-$4.82 previously. A bit troubling, but not sure if a 20% hit to the market cap is quite appropriate for a ~4% change in guidance. At any rate, it happened and I’m quite glad.

You know, it’s funny. People talk all the time about buying “when there’s blood in the streets”. Believe me, it’s much tougher to do so when the blood is spilling and some of it might be your own. But I take pride in this blog, and my purchases, being live and loud. You can see all of my greatest hits and misses, but most of all I’m glad you can see that I put my money where my mouth is. I talk about being glad when shares I own decline in price, and you can see that maxim in action here.

There continues to be risks with DLR here. Lowered guidance means the company is having a hard time meeting its objectives. Acquisitions of income-producing properties have slowed and lease commencement have been delayed, which DLR cites as being due to “reflecting the needs of strategic customers for phased delivery of custom-built space for large-scale requirements on long lease terms.”

But I’m a long-term investor. That means years, or decades. That doesn’t mean a quarter here or a quarter there. I think the future looks bright for this firm as well as the space they operate in. They signed new leases totaling $47 million of annualized rental revenue during Q3. The dividend is well covered by FFO, and at current prices shares now yield 6.5%. The company appears committed to growing the dividend, and I believe that will continue. DLR also announced a $500 million share repurchase authorization, which works out great while the shares are this cheap. Based on 2013 FFO, shares are now trading for a P/FFO of 10.3. And while I see growth slowing down from the phenomenal pace DLR has enjoyed for the past decade, shares aren’t priced for growth here. They’re basically priced for no growth. So any surprise to the upside is all gravy, in my opinion.

I’m not going to revisit all the details on the company, as you can view my previous two ‘Recent Buy’ articles for that, but I wanted to take the time on this post to remind all of you out there to always know where you stand on a company. If a 20% drop causes you illness and a strong desire to sell you may not want to invest in a company at all. I would certainly agree completely that DLR is much riskier than your average blue-chip dividend growth stock, but the numbers are compelling even with the anticipated slower growth. I’m happy to purchase shares on the severe dip.

DLR has grown the dividend by a compounded annual growth rate of 15.3% since 2005. Although that growth is likely to slow dramatically going forward, I still think mid-single-digit growth is likely – on par with expected 2014 FFO growth. The last dividend raise was 6.8%, which may give investors a fair outlook for growth in the future.

I valued the shares back in August using a Dividend Discount Model analysis and came up with a fair value on shares of just over $65 per share using a 10% discount rate and a long-term growth rate of 5%. I think this represents a reasonable assessment of what shares are worth, but right now Mr. Market certainly disagrees. In the short-term anything can happen (especially with a large short float), but I think over the long haul the shares in DLR will be valued accordingly assuming the company performs well. In the meantime, I’ll continue collecting a robust dividend.

This purchase adds $62.40 to my annual dividend income based on the current quarterly payout of $0.78.

I currently still have 42 positions in my portfolio, as this was an addition to an existing investment.

I usually like to include analyst opinions, but since neither Morningstar nor S&P Capital IQ track this stock I’ll include an analysis from my fellow dividend blogger Dividend Monk. Although it’s a few months old, the information is still extremely relevant:

Digital Realty Trust (DLR): Trap or Value?

I’ll update my Freedom Fund in early November to reflect my recent addition.

Full Disclosure: Long DLR

How about you? Is this a value play or value trap?

Thanks for reading.

Photo Credit: Stuart Miles/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Comments

  1. I agree, DLR is priced as if it is going out of business. Which I think is wrong, because the company is still in business, and generating enough cash to fund operations and pay dividends. Plus it has 27 open positions – a company that expects to go out of business is not going to hire people. I think the market is really punishing this company more than it should be.

    I am holding on to my position, as I think dividend is well covered. If history is any guide, I would expect a dividend hike announced in February 2014. I am closely monitoring the stock, but I am afraid I won’t have any meaningful new funds to allocate till later in 2013 or early 2014. That is the negative part of putting all my money to work when I get them. I even have to replenish my reserve fund, which is low..

    Good catch DM, and hope we get to enjoy rising digital dividends on this one for decades 😉

  2. I had to stop my buys due to recent downfall, my rental home was vandalized by the tenant, I had to do eviction, insurance has yet to come and see the place. I might have damages in amount of 50k and in a very big misery situation, don’t have that big emergency fund. I have detailed my tragedy In my blog dividendmom.blogspot.com so no more investment for right now. Tightly sitting what the insurance has to say. Good buy DM.

  3. DGI,

    Thanks for stopping by!

    I agree with you. This company is priced for almost no growth. Fine by me. I really didn’t want DLR being as big of a position as it is now, but my portfolio will grow in around it and it will become small again. In the meantime, you and I will collect those digital dividends. 🙂

    I also agree on the dividend raise. Should come in early 2014. Looking forward to seeing what it is, as it should give us some visibility.

    Best regards.

  4. Dividend Mom,

    Terribly sorry to hear of your difficulties. The good thing is you have the tenant evicted and you can move on with your life. I’d get some competing offers on repairs and see what the insurance company has to say. Once you have your total liability in hand you can budget from there.

    You are in a good financial spot to take this kind of hit, as unfortunate as it is. That’s the great thing about living below your means, budgeting and investing. Even a catastrophic event like this won’t sink your ship. You’ll take a loss here, but learn from it and emerge stronger. I wish you the best of luck!

    Take care.

  5. I added to DLR also, altho too soon at $48.90. Great entry you got as that’s near the very bottom in a volatile session. I will pick up even more at 45 if the market let’s me

  6. Great buy, DM. I will definitely add to my DLR position in the coming days. I will also finally initiate a position in BP, which has gone up quite a bit recently but remains a good company nonetheless. I might even add to my O position, even if it’s a bit pricier than I would like. IBM is on my sights. KO ain’t looking too bad. I’m glad that there are still buys out there, I’ve been sitting on the sidelines for the majority of the month because I needed cash available during the sale of the house.

  7. This was a funny post for me. I saw DLR tanking yesterday and thought to myself, “How is DM feeling about this right now?” Sure enough, you bought more. Nothing shows more confidence in a company than buying more when the stock is being punished. I hope it proves to be a great add for the long run!

  9. My first thought was equal to yours, i wantet to add more shares. But than i stopped and thought about Digital`s business and their moat. I mean when i am a customer of DLR and a competitor offers me lower prices, how fast can i switch? I would say it costs me a day or a month to relocate my whole servers to another company. So what does DLR offer or have what nobody else offers?
    Their shares are tanking since the bottom of the yield cycle and i think that treasury yields are not going much lower now. I could be wrong on this, but i don`t want to be in REITs when the yield normalizes to 3 or 4%. I currently have 1% of my networth in DLR (thats the only REIT i have) and i will leave it there.

  10. The Averaging Down Plan has never worked for me. There is so many goods stocks to invest in, instead of chasing this one down?

  11. it’s still trading at 33 P/E, but I’d agree still at a discount. I don’t own any DLR, but I just made a similar purchase with ARR. Price has been hit for a taper that didn’t and won’t be happening anytime soon.

  12. I bought some on Wednesday as well after the 15% drop. I didn’t think their Q3 Earnings miss of 4% or so warranted a drop of -15% of market cap too. A good entry point I hope, however, I watched it drop another 4% or so on Thursday. 😉

  13. Best qoute ever, oh so true!

    You know, it’s funny. People talk all the time about buying “when there’s blood in the streets”. Believe me, it’s much tougher to do so when the blood is spilling and some of it might be your own.

    I too doubled down 🙂

  14. Just some fun facts… a new server is born (roughly) for every 600 smartphones and every 120 tablets. Mobile phone growth has been doubling about every 2 years. Cloud uptake is still in its infancy (imagine when both M$ and Apple’s office suites are being run entirely in the cloud). I think DLR’s future is bright.

  15. I like the purchase and if I had some capital I would throw my hat in the ring on this drop. I think the market might have overstepped based on the miss and adjusted guidance. Only time will tell however.

  16. “You can see all of my greatest hits and misses”

    That’s a great idea for a series, DM. I know you’re definitely a “buy-and-hold” guy, so even what looks now like a “miss” might not be at all when you factor in how long you’re buying and holding and collecting dividends….but looking back at significant “great buys” and significant “bad buys” in your freedom portfolio might be fun….

  17. Dividend Mantra, you may want to consider a different Dividend Growth Reit, I gave up on DLR some time back and decided to add PSA (Public Storage), the yield is around 3% and the dividend growth annually is over 10%…something to consider.

    Regards,
    Joe

  19. Dividend Mantra,

    First off, huge fan of your blog. Long time reader, first time poster. I might not agree with you 100% of the time (although I usually do), I applaud your efforts and the level of accountability that you have for your decisions. It is VERY refreshing to see someone be completely open about what they are doing. Its no easy task, so thank you very much.

    Just out of curiosity, how much of your thinking this company is a good long term buy comes from the belief in the industry as a whole vs. DLR as a specific company? Its obvious that technology will be increasing over the years (especially cloud computing) and real estate will always be an increasing industry (there is only a fixed amount of space on earth but the amount of people keeps growing). However, sometimes I think that we make purchases of specific companies within an industry or sector, simply because they are in a sector we believe in, and not because we have a super strong grasp on that specific companies future prospects. Im sure you have seen this youtube video of warren buffett http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a9Lx9J8uSs giving a talk at a university. At about the 14 minute mark, he talks about how easy it is to pick which sectors will do well vs. how incredibly difficult it is to pick specific winners within that sector. (Obviously his career/life is built on picking those winners so he does think it can be done, and has proved that it can be). Anyway, in your article here you say ” I view the future as bright for this company as data usage continues to be consumed at exponential rates and DLR appears to be well positioned in key markets around the globe to take advantage of this trend and data center outsourcing”. I’m curious, what puts them in a good position to benefit from this growth, more so than other firms?

    Again, thank you so much for what you do DM, I really appreciate it!

    Spencer

  20. doing this stuff for 30 years I say this “If the yield is good and the dividend is covered why worry about the share price”It is all about the those wonderful dividends Is that to simple way to look at it

  21. DM – I read your blog often, but do not comment frequently. However, I thought this post was very comprehensive. I bought DLR few months back at approximately $59.00, and of course was not particularly enamored with its recent plunge. Unlike you, I am not one who believes in averaging down, so the question I faced was whether to hold or sell. In the end, I decided to hold, mostly for the reasons you have articulated above.

    While I do have concerns about increased competition from the likes of Microsoft and Google, as well as the effect of rising interest rates (when that materializes) I still like the business of data storage and think it has future growth. Whether DLR is the one to capture it remains to be seen I suppose. For now I am holding, but if it gets some below $45.00 I will seriously consider selling, and at $40 I am likely out.

  23. Anonymous,

    fiveoh is correct. You wouldn’t want to value a REIT by earnings, but FFO. FFO adds back in depreciation and amortization expenses to earnings. Using FFO, DLR trades for a P/FFO of just above 10 – which is very cheap.

    Best wishes!

  24. Took2Summit,

    Glad to see we’re on the same page. I don’t have the kind of conviction on DLR as I do, say, a JNJ, but I think the valuation is compelling here. The yield is strong and the dividend is well-covered. Plus, the guidance is assuming almost no growth. Any upside could move things along nicely.

    Best regards!

  25. Spoonman,

    BP looks great here. I’m glad I got in before the move up, which was really inevitable. It may come back down again, as oil prices are always volatile and they still have ongoing problems. Overall, I think you’ll do well going long even after the pop.

    IBM is also still in my mind. If it shows weakness again I may hop aboard that train. I don’t think KO is particularly cheap, but I would like to improve the overall quality of my portfolio.

    Did you end up selling your house? I haven’t stopped by ERE in a couple days, so if you did I missed it. Congratulations if you sold it! 🙂

    Take care.

  26. Shack,

    Glad I didn’t disappoint! 🙂

    I hope it proves to be a good add as well. We shall see. There are risks, but I think those risks are now compensated with that high yield.

    Best regards.

  27. FFdividend,

    Thanks! I appreciate the support. 🙂

    I don’t think you’ll go wrong adding some here, but make sure you’re completely comfortable with the company.

    Cheers!

  28. Anonymous,

    Interesting question. I don’t know how much of a moat I’d give DLR, to be quite honest. But not every single company I have a position in has a wide moat. There is competition in all industries. You can switch to VZ from T, Pepsi to Coke, from one gas station to another. However, I don’t think it’s a zero-sum game where some else’s gain is automatically DLR’s loss. The predictions for data growth is exponential, and there will be multiple companies serving demand for space.

    As far as switching, DLR’s average lease length remaining is just under 7 years. There won’t be a massive exodus. Plus, DLR has certain competitive advantages with the locations of their real estate and some of the turn-key operations they have.

    As far as interest rates go, I try not to predicate my purchasing habits based on macroeconomic trends. Interest rates will eventually go up, but REITs like O, DLR and the like will continue leasing space in their buildings because business must be conducted. I try not to read too much into it. Although, I do agree with you in regards to low exposure to REITs in general. I try to limit my weight to REITs to 5% of my portfolio. My reasoning is for the lower growth they typically offer.

    Best wishes.

  29. Anonymous,

    Averaging down isn’t for everyone. You have to have conviction in the fundamentals and even then I would always advise to never stray from diversification. Even after buying this one in three lots it’s only a little more than 2% of my portfolio.

    Take care!

  30. Anonymous,

    I thought about buying on the initial 15% drop, as you did. However, I wanted to think on it overnight. I’m glad I did because I got the extra 5% drop on Thursday. That was pure luck.

    I’m confident we’ll do well over the long haul with DLR, but obviously time will tell. We’ll have to continue monitoring this one. The large short float could also continue to cause headaches. Maybe I’ll buy some Tylenol and give JNJ a boost. 🙂

    Best wishes.

  31. Anonymous,

    Glad you liked that quote. Buffett talks about being greedy when others are fearful, but it’s easier said than done. I’d like to think I’ve “got the goods”, but it’s certainly difficult when it’s all happening in real-time.

    I hope DLR serves us well over the long haul!

    Best regards.

  32. Zol,

    Great facts there! That’s amazing, isn’t it? Technology is exciting and scary all at the same time. I do fear tech for the most part, but I hope that DLR can capture even half the growth they have in the past going forward. We’ll see!

    Take care.

  33. w2r,

    I agree. A 4% change in guidance does not warrant a 20% drop in price, but who am I to judge? I’m glad for the drop, however. I dig massive drops like this in a modestly overvalued market.

    Cheers!

  34. Anonymous,

    Great idea there. I’ll put something together some day. My portfolio is now almost four years old, so I think I have a good history from which to draw from. Maybe after my 5th anniversary I’ll put together something like that. Thanks for the idea!

    Best wishes.

  36. Spencer Stojic,

    Thanks for the support! I’m glad you appreciate my transparency, as it’s something I pride myself on.

    Great question there.

    I’m not quite sure I have a great answer for you. My success is not predicated on my ability to predict companies that will outpace their own sector. I concentrate on individual companies and their fundamentals. I quantitatively and qualitatively analyze every company I invest in, and then try to reasonably value the shares. If a company meets my criteria – whatever that may be – than I consider that a “winner”. If I want a 3% entry yield and 7% growth (say a 10% total return) and the company delivers, then I consider that “mission accomplished” even if the general sector somehow did better. Comparing individual companies to an entire sector is like comparing a portfolio to an entire market or index, which is something I also refrain from. It just has nothing to do with accomplishing what I’m aiming for – the ability to be financially independent via dividend income.

    However, this all being said I think that you’ll find that focusing on high quality companies that meet a strict set of criteria and are attractively valued when purchased will lead to total returns in excess of a basket of stocks within a sector or index. There’s many studies out there that prove this, but there is likely some survivorship bias going on, and again – it has nothing to do with my long-term goals.

    I hope that helps?

    Best wishes.

  37. Dividenden Sammler,

    Well, this company is definitely not for everyone. I don’t discriminate by market cap, and actually view some small cap companies as having excellent growth prospects. That being said, DLR was a much bigger company when they were north of $70/share. Obviously the weak performance has killed the market cap. Quite interesting that they might have been more attractive to some people at all-time highs because of a bigger market cap.

    In the end, I would stick to your criteria and what you feel comfortable with. 🙂

    Cheers!

  38. Anonymous,

    Great perspective. Can’t say I disagree. 🙂

    There’s many investors out there that buy and sell stocks based on certain yield triggers. Seems to suit them fine.

    Best wishes!

  39. Dining on Dividends,

    Glad you liked the post enough to stop by and comment. I was actually afraid this one wasn’t comprehensive enough, but I’ve already written about DLR at length in the other two posts and didn’t want to repeat myself needlessly.

    I’m not as concerned about Microsoft, Google or Amazon here. At least for now. I’m aware that Amazon and Google has businesses where they lease space on servers for smaller businesses, but DLR is aiming for large businesses that need their own space. Different business models, but there’s nothing to say it will stay that way. As always, one must monitor the companies they own.

    However, I will say I wouldn’t recommend selling based on a declining price. I would sell because the fundamentals are deteriorating. If you feel that they are I would sell now. If you believe in the company and everything looks great and it fell to $20 you would sell? It reminds me of AFL when it was in the $30s. I bought because the fundamentals looked sound. Many others were selling because the share price was cratering. I guess I’m just wired differently. 🙂

    Best regards!

  40. I have seen, DLR is on the CCC-List. Great!

    But in my case, I insist on a minimum market capitalization of 10 billion euros. DRL has 4.5 billion euros and therefore does not meet my requirements.

    When I decide me for a company, which I will possibly hold until the end of my life, then I think, 4.5 billion market capitalization are simply not enough!

    I can´t trust this company…
    But could be, that that is a problem in my head…

    Best regards
    Dividenden Sammler

  42. Wow! I am seeing a lot of buy high and sell low type investors posting here. I guess this is why the ”99%” never learn. Trying to get rich quick and if they can not, they grab their parachute and bail. I think these people should stick to playing the lottery and drop dividend investing!

  43. On the contrary, what you are actually seeing are people who understand that at times you have to reassess your position to ensure your investing thesis remains sound. Applying your logic would involve blindly hanging on to a stock regardless of any declining fundamentals, simply on the premise that you never sell no matter how much a stock falls. That approach has lead more people into financial ruin than almost any other I can think of. Good luck.

  44. All stocks eventually go away. Of the original DOW 30 (the bluest of blue chip) only 1 is left and if not for the 2008 bailouts would of went poof too.

  45. Anonymous,

    I don’t think you have to wait for a systemic market crash to find stocks that have taken a beating and then buy. The spread between DLR and the S&P 500 YTD is about 50%. If you were to only wait for true market crashes that offer spreads like that you’ll only be buying once a decade or so. I prefer to let my compounding work for me on a more ongoing basis.

    Best regards.

  46. Anonymous,

    Buying high and selling low is certainly not a game I’d like to play. The money you’re losing lines someone else’s pocket. I only hope to fill my own.

    Best wishes!

  47. Anonymous II,

    I agree that blindly hanging on to a stock regardless of underlying business performance would be foolish. I always recommend to revisit your original thesis and compare that to the fundamentals at hand. If the fundamentals are declining – which would be shown through revenue loss, profit loss, operating in a dying industry, losing market share, etc. – than there is no reason to continue hanging on, let alone buy more stock. At that point you’re best of cutting your losses and reinvesting in another company with brighter prospects going forward. I recently sold part of my INTC position because I’m afraid they’re not making the inroads into mobile necessary to allow them to thrive going forward. On the other hand, DLR is signing new leases, has been very active in acquisitions and although they didn’t meet guidance the numbers still look great if you come to the conclusion that growth is slowing.

    However, I don’t think DLR qualifies for declining fundamentals. FFO is at an all-time high and yet the stock is trading for the same price it was back in 2009. I believe that the market gets stocks wrong sometimes, although I would further argue that I get them wrong sometimes too. But I don’t think you need to be right 100% of the time to succeed and generate substantial wealth throughout your lifetime. If you insist on a margin of safety (which I believe DLR offers here), diversify your holdings (so that if you are wrong you’re not ruined) and you’re right more often than you’re wrong you’ll do well.

    Best regards.

  48. Anonymous III,

    Stating that “all stocks eventually go away” is a misconception at best. While I’m sure the list of companies that have gone bankrupt in the last century is enormous, that’s a far cry from “all”. There are many companies that have continued to thrive since their inception over a century ago – names like Coca-Cola, IBM, Wells Fargo come to mind.

    Many and all are different words with completely different meanings.

    Take care.

  49. Took2 summit here. That comment about only 1 Dow company remaining and they all go out of business is so far from the truth. In fact very few companies that have made it to the dow have gone out of business. Many of the companies, on the contrary, either do so well they get gobbled by another company, or they do so well and get so big they have to do spinoffs. Many of the original Dow companies from back in the late 1800s are now part of bigger conglomerates like Unilever, jnj, or pg. Some companies are even removed because the Dow is a price weighted index. For instance bac was just removed because of their low share price. Make no mistake tho bac still generates billions of profit every year on the Dow or not.

  50. Took2Summit,

    Great points there in regards to the Dow and how it operates. I didn’t address that side of the comment, instead choosing to focus on the ridiculous and untrue statement “all stocks eventually go away”.

    Great points – just because a company is no longer in the DOW doesn’t mean it has somehow failed. There are 30 companies in the DOW and thousands that are publicly traded. Does that somehow mean that only the 30 on the DOW are worthy of investment?

    Best regards.

  51. Today I followed your steps. Add 23 more DLR below $48 to my existing position.

    Very truly,
    Manefla

  53. Nice trades. I am heading for XOM too. I will be adding some utilities, MLPs and higher yielding but safe stocks to my portfolio too. Need to boost my income.
    November was my the best month so far.

  54. Martin,

    Congrats on a great November! That’s fantastic.

    I think XOM is less attractive today than when it was when I bought it, but you’re likely to still do well if you plan on holding it for a long period of time.

    Best regards.

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