Caution Warranted

I wrote an article a little while back explaining why I don’t value the entire stock market, but rather individual companies. As an investor who buys shares in individual, high quality companies the valuation of the entire market is but a secondary concern. However, that doesn’t mean that I completely ignore the valuation of the market or abstain from even paying attention. Rather, I do pay attention to overall valuations if only because I look at it like a check on the “weather”. Is it sunny and warm outside, or are storm clouds brewing on the horizon?

When I wrote the above article, the Shiller P/E ratio was at 21.70. The mean value is 16.47, going back before 1900. The Shiller P/E is now at 24.64. You can see that below:

Shiller PE

Now, I’m not some doomsayer that is predicting a calamity in the market. Moreover, I’m continuing to invest fresh capital every single month into high quality companies that have a history of raising dividends just like I have been for the last 3+ years. However, that doesn’t mean I’m not anxiously watching the valuation of individual companies. I’m extremely cautious about which companies deserve my hard earned cash, and I believe it would be prudent to continue this cautious outlook as long as broader market levels stay this elevated. The list of suitable investments where I feel comfortable putting money to work is becoming smaller and smaller as the months wear on.

Many high quality companies are trading at valuations right now that may lead to slightly disappointing total returns over the short-term. That’s not to say that many of these companies won’t make fine investments when you’re looking out 20 or more years, but if I can buy high quality merchandise for sale prices I’m all in.

For instance, The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is currently trading for a P/E ratio (using TTM earnings) of 21.4. The 5-year average is 17.6. Certainly I’m all for paying up for quality, as I believe there is nothing wrong with paying a fair price for a high quality company (I’ve done it on many occasions). And depending on the valuation model, I could agree that KO is trading for fair value today. However, if investors average in to Coca-Cola shares at a level for almost 20% less than they’re currently trading for is it prudent to buy today? That’s a question only an individual investor can answer.

The above quandary is present for many high quality companies today. Companies like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) and Philip Morris International (PM) all appear to be trading shares for levels higher than what investors have been willing to pay in the past. Certainly, as I’ve pointed out many times before, it’s tough to build a portfolio, and a rising stream of passive income via dividends, if you’re not actively buying ownership stakes in wonderful businesses. However, what I believe to be prudent today is to really think hard before you invest your capital, and strive for value when it can be found.

I believe value, or what little of it is there, can currently be found in sectors that have not run up as much as the broader S&P 500. One could look at high quality companies in the Basic Materials, Real Estate and Energy sectors for better values than what might be found in Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive and the Healthcare sectors. That’s not to say that there aren’t deals to be found in the latter list, but rather that the former list might hold better opportunities for the enterprising investor.

What I’m going to change is this: nothing. I believe in persistence and I continue to stay steadfast in my approach to building wealth. I scan for the best opportunities I can and strike when capital and allocation allows. For example, a couple of my most recent purchases were shares in Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.B) and Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR). Both are high quality companies that are in the sectors that I listed above that have not done as well as the broader market. Both companies have severely underperformed the broader market by a wide margin YTD. As always, I put my money where my mouth is.

I’m actually hoping for a broader market pullback over the next couple months, which would surely bring down the prices on some of the high quality companies I’m currently invested in and also those that I long to own a piece of. While this would mean that the paper value of my investments are less, and my net worth is then lower, it would also mean that my new capital goes further by buying larger stakes in the companies I’m actively purchasing. Those larger stakes means more shares for the same amount of money, and more shares means more dividends. More dividends gives me more ammo with which to further increase my ownership stakes in these high quality companies. A wonderful cycle. Just like I enjoy a good sale at the grocery store on new food that I need to buy to eat today, I enjoy cheaper shares on high quality businesses that I’m looking to buy today so that I can build more wealth tomorrow.

How about you? Do you believe caution is currently warranted?

Full Disclosure: Long KO, JNJ, PEP, PM, RDS.B, DLR

Thanks for reading.

Photo Credit: mrpuen/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Comments

  1. says

    Same here. I am staying on the sidelines with more than usual cash in my portfolio – hoping to initiate new/extend my existing positions. The US stocks currently are either fully priced or overvalued, but I am able to find some better value in the Canadian market.

    Historically, September is one of the worst months of the year and I see it as a buying opportunity.

    • says

      Roadmap2Retire,

      I’m with you on some value in the Canadian stock market. The TSX has not performed nearly as strong as what the U.S. market has seen this year. I’m particularly bullish on Canadian banks at these prices, and I’m interested in adding to my positions in TD and BNS here. RY also looks nice.

      For the sake of brevity I didn’t want to compare international markets to the U.S. market, but the essence is that one should look for value wherever it is to be found, and one could certainly make a compelling case that there is some to be found in Canada.

      Best regards!

  2. says

    Yes indeed. Our div portfolio is about 25% cash and will likely stay in that vicinity until I can find some better values. As income accumulates above that level, I’ll probably look at companies like DLR and RDS.B. I’m afraid that the stalwart stocks are going to be stuck at high levels until interest rates start rising. If that happens, those who aren’t true dividend investors will start selling and move toward bonds again. I’m hoping that happens sooner rather than later.

    • says

      TheHawk,

      Well, the non-believers could do us a huge favor very soon if bond yields start to become more attractive. I personally am not looking at bonds until I start to see 10-years yielding 5% or more. Rising interest rates might be the greatest threat to the market right now, so I do look forward to a cooling period where more attractive valuations are commonplace.

      I agree with you that the stalwarts like PG, KO, PEP, JNJ and the like are expensive right now and unlikely to be much cheaper over the short run. However, one can never time or predict the market so until they do become more attractive for current purchases I’ll continue to hold on to the positions I have and accumulate positions in companies more attractively valued.

      Thanks for stopping by!

      Take care.

    • Anonymous says

      I can say from personal experience that one time recently when I bought something which I suspected was overvalued (HCP, back in April 2013 at just over $50) it came back later to bite me. I’ll agree with others that say to wait it out until better prices appear. I’m about 18% cash now. If I were more of a “sell high” trading mentality, I would have sold more already, but I’m mostly buy and hold. I did sell a couple of things in the weeks before the most recent “default drama” just in case some in congress forgot they were reading from a script.

    • says

      Neo,

      Wow. That’s some cash position. You’ll be ready to strike like a Viper when the time is right. Very nice!

      The value will come. Certainly. The market eventually reverts back to the mean, sometimes faster and harder than usual.

      I’m also slowly building a larger-than-usual cash balance, but for reasons unrelated to stock valuations, and rather a project I may be involved in late next year.

      Happy hunting! :)

      Best wishes.

    • gibor says

      I’m not sure that waiting for years losing $$ due to inflation is a good idea. Another question, what should happen that you will see value? Drop of 10%, 20%, 50%?

  3. says

    I know most will disagree with me. I have been slamming money in the Vanguard Investment grade bond fund recently. Its hard to beat a 4.8% dividend. What I like most about this is the dividends are reinvested monthly, so it gets the snowball moving faster. Even if bond values drop I wont sell. I’m going to use the dividend income indefinitely without every cashing out. A few more up days on the TYX and I will be getting a 5% dividend on new purchases. Monthly compounding is a magical thing!

    • says

      Monty,

      I must admit I’m unfamiliar with the particular bond fund you’re investing in, but do be aware that it isn’t “dividends” that you’re receiving. Also, be very careful with the duration, as duration risk is a real risk with bond funds. As interest rates rise, the value of the underlying bonds fall. The longer duration bonds obviously suffer the most.

      I’m certainly interested in eventually having some allocation to fixed income, but for me right now the rates do not make sense. When the 10-year Treasury crosses 5% I’ll be interested.

      Best of luck!

      Take care.

    • says

      I’m invested in the 30 year bond. Not Treasuries though. I have done quite a bit of research and I feel semi comfortable with it, but I will only purchase it in the mid $9s with an almost 5% yield. My goal was to get the snow ball big enough where if rates do rise dramatically it will have snowball purchasing power. If bond rates do get to far out of hand I feel that well be back to the dark ages. The US government debt is huge. If rates go up too high, in the next few years, the national debt payments will collapse the system. I don’t think the FED/Government would let that happen. Here is the payout/dividend on the bond fund:

      https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0568&FundIntExt=INT#tab=4

      The historical price of the bond fund shows very rarely a price less than $9 per share throughout history. If it did get back to that I would only lose 1 years worth of dividends. I think its fairly safe, but your analysis would be appreciated. What am I missing?

      Here is the 10 year average price.

      http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/VWETX/tab/2

    • says

      Monty,

      If you’ve done your due diligence and feel comfortable with this investment, then I say go for it. Personally, I don’t see a lot of potential with long-term bonds with the environment we’re in. Where will the growth come from? There are other investments I can find with a similar yield and with growth to boot. This shows you the long-term 10-year rates:

      http://www.multpl.com/interest-rate/

      The mean is 4.64%. The current yield is 2.56%. Eventually the yields will move up and the value of the underlying bonds will fall. How long that takes, however, is anyone’s guess.

      The bond fund you’re invested in has done well over the last 10 years, but one can see that rates have been falling for at least that long. Place the bond fund’s performance chart over the 10-year rate chart and you’ll see an interesting pattern.

      Again, if you feel comfortable after doing your DD then I say go for it!

      Best regards.

    • says

      Thank you for taking the time to reply. I’m not sure what to buy in this environment. I know the average return is only 8% over the last 10 years, but I’m getting worried with current market valuations of stocks. I was concerned with the growth as well of the bond fund. I did some calculating and paying dividends monthly helped the compounding quite a bit to offset now growth in bonds. I will just try and hang with it for diversification sake. Thank you again.

  4. says

    I think this is a great warning message. I’m also a long-term investor so I’m not too worried about what’s happening in the short-term, but I do think that we’re bound to have some sort of correction soon. The market has been too good to keep it up. Hopefully we don’t come crashing down and the whole thing ends up being minor.

    • says

      Jake,

      As a long-term investor, short-term fluctuations are nothing but blips on the radar. However, overvaluation means your new capital doesn’t go as far, buying less shares and less dividend income with which to reinvest and grow your wealth. Like I said, over 20 years it won’t matter a whole lot that you modestly overpaid for an asset…but short-term pain can be real when your money could go much further by being patient and seeking the best value/quality ratio available.

      Best wishes!

  5. says

    I separate the activities of speculating and investing by using different accounts. I recently read “The Intelligent Investor” and was pleasantly surprised to see that Graham also suggests this.

    In one account I buy and hold. This is my income fund. I buy regardless of what the market is doing, every month, I sometimes have to force myself to.

    In another account I trade, no investments, ever. I use this to grow other accounts and never make deposits, only withdrawals.

    In another account I hold government bonds, both savings and treasuries, and this is my “safe money”.

    • says

      The Dividend Guy,

      Sounds like a nice system you have going on there. I don’t have such a system set up because I fear I would perform horribly at trading, but it sounds like it’s working out pretty well for you! :)

      Best regards!

  6. Spoonman says

    We find ourselves in another difficult environment again. Good deals are harder and harder to find, but they are still there. Right now, about 80% of the companies in my portfolio are overvalued and even grossly overvalued. I fear there will come a point when everything will become prohibitively expensive, in which case I will have no choice but to sit and wait. That will be a sad day because there’s nothing that keeps me going more than watching my dividend income increase month after month.

    There is no doubt that the huge rally we’ve had is based on nothing but QE vapor, there’s very little real value in the market.

    The interesting thing is that once I am through with the accumulation stage of my journey, I’m actually not going to mind if the market runs up. I’m at least 17 months from that point though.

    • says

      Spoonman,

      Great perspective there. You’re right, valuations are something that really only affect those of us who are still in the accumulation phase.

      I honestly wish QE had never been initiated. I’d love to see what valuations would be all on their own. I can’t argue that lending and general economic growth are bad, but the side effect of easy money flowing into equities is rather unfortunate.

      I’m still interested in buying, but my purchases for the foreseeable future are going to be smaller in size and fewer in frequency. We’ll see what happens, but I definitely wouldn’t mind a 10% pullback from here.

      Best of luck out there! I share your passion for a growing dividend income stream. The growth in income is extremely motivating, so seeing it stall on the account of overvaluation would be discouraging.

      Take care!

  7. says

    While I agree completely, I think the bubble may still have a ways to go before bursting. As long as Bernake keeps printing and the banks are looking for places to stash their free money, wont that keep driving up the overvalued market?

    • says

      Beo Wulf,

      It’s impossible to predict where the market is going to go, which is why I continue to stick to my plan. However, I’ll be much less aggressive than usual. I think there is still value in the market to be sure, but much less than we had just a few months ago and much less than what is usual.

      Happy shopping!

      Best regards.

  8. Anonymous says

    Hey D. Mantra,

    Any thoughts on the tech sector (specifically INTC, MSFT and AAPL)? With their recent earnings report, some investors are bailing on INTC. I have to admit that I’m getting a bit nervous myself wondering if their gains in data server and mobile processors (which are lower margin) can make up the losses in the higher margin PC processor segment (which I think is obviously in some level of long-term decline). Dividend appears safe but it is starting to make me wonder where the growth can come from.

    -Rock the Casbah

    • says

      Rock,

      I’m concerned about Intel, to be honest. The margins have been compressed as you mention, due to the slowdown in the high margin PC business. They have not made the kind of inroads into mobile that I, or many others, were expecting. I’ve owned shares in Intel since mid-2011 and it’s largely been rather disappointing. Looking out over the long-term, technology will always represent a rather small portion of my portfolio as it’s just not an area I am an expert in. It’s rather easy, however, to take a stake in INTC (or MSFT, AAPL or CSCO) because it’s a gigantic blue-chip company that has a lengthy history behind it and the business model is relatively easy to understand.

      Looking over the last 5 years of revenue, earnings and cash flow INTC has been outstanding really. However, the past is no indicator of future results. And the last year+ has been flat. I’m anxiously awaiting the dividend increase from INTC, which should be announced later this month. If it’s less than satisfactory I’ll have to consider exiting my position. Although I think shares are cheap, the waiting game (for further inroads into mobile) is becoming tiring. Last year’s dividend increase was satisfactory enough for me, but if we see a 3%-4% raise this year I’ll likely be looking for the exits.

      MSFT took a big hit today. I think shares in that company are also cheap. They are a cash cow. Again, I’m just not a huge fan of tech in general, and if I had a 0% allocation to it I would be just fine.

      Best wishes!

  9. says

    And who’s to say that in the future the norm will be a PE of X as it has been for a long time in this time period. Maybe it will be Y, or Z in the future? Maybe what we thought was fair value for a stock was really cheap or expensive? Since I can’t know these things I try to be consistent, invest monthly and always try to find the best deal available.

    • says

      Chrimatistikos,

      Investing regularly, regardless of broader market levels is probably the best way to go. And that’s generally the path I follow. However, it’s not unwise to be aware of one’s situation and vary one’s amount of caution.

      I would be careful with thinking that we might be in some kind of “new normal” Human beings tend to project whatever is recent out into the long-term. Just because investors have been willing to pay above-average prices for assets today does not in any way mean that the premium will continue for any length of time. Mr. Market is rather fickle! A mean going back over 100 years is probably good enough proof that we’re in abnormal times.

      Best regards.

  10. says

    I guess this is one of the few times I should be happy about not having any free capital to invest for the next few weeks. By the time I get some more money to invest, the market might have deflated a bit. Or just risen higher. I guess we’ll find out in a few weeks.

    • says

      MFIJ,

      I’m with you. I’m also low on capital right now and I’m rejoicing! I’d be hard pressed to find any particularly compelling opportunities at this moment. I was looking to buy more Shell, but even that has run up quite quickly (along with other oil companies).

      Hopefully we get our long-awaited pullback very soon! :)

      Take care.

  11. says

    I couldn’t agree more Jason. The valuations for consumer staples and discretionary stocks have gotten very rich. I am about 2/3 in cash waiting to redeploy capital for better investments. In addition to your material and energy ideas, I think we will soon have value in emerging markets…..and the multinationals that are tied to them.

    Keep up the good work
    Bryan

    • says

      Bryan,

      Emerging markets (usually the BRIC variety) are certainly still an excellent place to invest. As you mention, I also prefer the big multinationals as my angle on that (KO, PM, PEP and the like).

      We’ll see what Mr. Market does over the next few weeks. :)

      Best wishes.

  12. Anonymous says

    Hi DM,
    While I’ve enjoyed reading your blog and would like to continue, I do need to say that the advertising on your site is getting to be too much to wade through. I know this is part of what keeps your bank account healthy, but I’m probably going to have to stop reading this because of the advertising. I’m careful about not clicking on anything, it just takes a lot longer to get through. I don’t expect this to change, because as I said it adds to your bank account, but I’d rather read about stocks without the advertising “noise”.

    Thank you, sorry – one less reader.
    Retiring with Dividends

    • says

      Retiring with Dividends,

      I’m sorry you feel that way. I’m quite a sucker for detail, and I regularly compare my site with other like sites and blogs and I see very little difference in terms of ads. First, Google limits you to 3 per page, so that cannot be altered (all sites are the same). I only have one other ad provider I work with, which is actually much less than you see on some other sites that have multiple affiliate partnerships.

      I don’t really make a lot from this blog, and I’ve always been open about the revenue it generates on my income/expense reports. I typically average around $185 per month, but I’ve had a couple months lately that were higher due to some national media exposure. Before I really took a more active approach regarding ads I was only making $80-$100 per month. I felt like the amount of time I spend on this blog was worth more than that and so I made some changes in regards to ad displays.

      Again, sorry you feel that way.

      Best regards.

  13. Scoonie says

    I have a whole bunch of stocks I would love to buy, but I am also hoping for a market pullback. A few weeks ago, we saw a 6%-7% pullback on the S&P 500. That didn’t last long, and the market immediately shot up and again hit record highs yesterday. It’s always a little risky to buy stocks when the market is at a record high.

    I bought two stocks in the past three weeks at good value (WMB, OHI), but will probably hold tights for a little while in anticipation of another pullback.

    • says

      Scoonie,

      That pullback certainly did not last long at all. I think many were expecting a sharper pullback, and certainly one that lasted longer. It’s a shame that not only did the S&P 500 quickly recover, but it has also set new records. Rather unfortunate for those of us accumulating assets.

      Sounds like you made some effective use of your excess capital. I hope to do the same in August with a great opportunity! :)

      Take care!

  14. says

    I agree with your thoughts about the current state of the stock market. However, like you, I continue to try to find individual stocks that are trading at or below fair value. It is a challenging task, though.

    I finally added a bit of new capital to my taxable account so that, when combined with over $900 in accumulated dividends, I have enough to make a decent-sized purchase. My goal is to buy something next week, although I am still scrutinizing my watch list to find the best opportunity at the moment.

    • says

      DGM,

      I’m looking forward to seeing what you purchase. My ideas are a little thin right now. I was actually looking forward to bolstering my RDS.B position in August, but if it stays above $70 that’s not going to happen.

      Best of luck. It’s tough out there!

      Best wishes.

  15. says

    Yeah I don’t know what to do either. Nothing I follow looks attractive.

    My best ideas are SO or O (maybe PM), neither of which are particularly compelling at current prices. But not horrendous I suppose. My plan for July was to snag some PG or CVX, but of course the market decided to price me out. Rats!

    I own enough INTC and really have to wonder where MSFT will be in 20 years. Steve Ballmer doesn’t seem to be a very good CEO. Where is the innovation? I don’t want to buy a new computer because of windows 8. I hope the computer I’m typing on right now lasts a few more years. I don’t want a new model at all (and it’s not because of $$).

    Come to think of it, the dunderheads at MSFT are indirectly affecting my dividends with INTC. Damn you Steve!

    Windows 7 was fine, everyone liked it…

    • says

      I was as actually thinking about adding to my SO position today. Its still too expensive, but not as crazy as some of the other companies. They have quite a few problems with new nuclear plants and their MS power plant though. RDS.B may still be a buy, but its hard to pull the trigger when you could have purchased it for $5 cheaper one week ago.

    • says

      CI,

      I have to wonder about innovation from both INTC and MSFT. I don’t follow MSFT as closely as some other companies, but I have been a bit disappointed with INTC. I’m still holding, but the transition to mobile is surprisingly slow.

      I’m with you on some of your ideas. Although I think PM is fully valued here, it still represents one of the best opportunities on the market for both current yield and growth of the dividend due to extremely strong business operations. They’ve been hampered by a strong dollar, but that really matters not in the long run. If I didn’t already own 100 shares I’d be looking at it, quite honestly.

      I’ll have to take another look at SO. I’m quite light on utilities at the moment, although I count my telecom holdings as quasi-utilities.

      Thanks for stopping by!

      Best regards.

  16. gibor says

    Couple of weeks ago, after I did some research on US utilites , from 12-15 candidates , i decided to buy SO (got it at $43)…it has the best combination of high entry yield and growth.
    Also bought CVX at 122.5…
    Now I think PM and MO both pretty attractive, also they gonna raise dividends… both are in top 5-6 of my portfolio, but if PM is going down another 2-5%, I probably gonna add more shares.

    • says

      gibor,

      I agree with you on PM. Really one of the best companies available on the market, and the cash flow generation is prodigious.

      I think Chevron is one of the better valued companies right now, as is most of the oil majors. However, they’ve all popped heavily over the last week or so. I was hoping XOM and RDS.B would stay cheap because those continue to be my best ideas heading into August. Very frustrating right now. :)

      Take care!

    • says

      Took2Summit,

      I haven’t looked at PPL very closely, but the dividend growth over the last 5 years has been anemic. Is there plans to change that going forward?

      Thanks for stopping by!

      Best regards.

    • says

      Aspenhawk,

      I read that article a while back and I think it was a great article. I can agree with many of the concepts laid out in it.

      However, one must keep in mind that the Shiller PE goes back over 100 years. Every single time the market has gotten to levels where we’re currently at it has come down, sometimes harder and faster than others. It’s really just more of a cautionary statement than anything else. I also use Buffett’s total market cap to GNP and it shows us over 100%, which is also saying we’re at heightened levels (expensive).

      The market can stay irrational for long periods of time, and investors have shown irrational exuberance (as Shiller puts it) many times before, and this can repeat itself over and over again. Things may go up and up from here, but I am staying quite cautious here and I will remain quite choosy with the companies I decide to invest in.

      Nobody can predict where the market, or individual companies, go from here. We’ll see what happens. But history can be a useful guide, and it looks like history is saying “Caution Warranted”.

      Best wishes!

  17. says

    I agree with you on being cautious with the overall valuation here. Hopefully us dividend investors can get better prices soon! I see you recently joined me as part owner of Realty Income! I also am sharing ownership with many of your stocks in your portfolio.

    For another real estate one what do you think of the developments at ARCP?

    I have been following you for quite awhile now. I love your blog and that you are proving the power of dividend investing and finally decided to start my own blog!

    • says

      SWAN Investor,

      Congrats on starting your own blog. I hope it turns out to be a fantastic tool for you to express yourself and document your progress.

      I actually don’t follow ARCP, but Dividend Growth Investor also recently mentioned the company. I took a quick look and it does indeed look like a much smaller version of Realty Income Corp. (O). I’ll have to keep my eye on it.

      Glad to have you as a co-owner in many high quality companies. May they serve us well as shareholders!

      Best regards.

    • says

      Thank you very much for the kind words DM! One of the things I enjoyed about following and reading all of your blogs is the encouragement you all give each other. Also, on a side note I am from the state of Michigan too!

    • says

      SWAN,

      I agree. One of the most enjoyable aspects of being in this group of young dividend growth investors is the encouragement we all give each other. It’s really a great community.

      Another Michigander? How cool. What part are you from? Do you still live there? A part of me longs to go back, if only because my entire family and all my friends live there still. I do miss them all tremendously. Certainly going back would be a bad decision, economically speaking. However, I do miss everyone.

      Take care!

    • says

      Hello DM!

      Yes, I am still living in Southeastern, MI. I don’t exactly like the winter weather here and would not mind being in the Sunshine State! Plus having no state income tax is a nice incentive.

    • says

      SWAN,

      Those are the reasons I moved here. The weather is wonderful most of the year (the summer can be brutally hot) and the lack of state income tax is tremendous.

      If I were to move back to Michigan I might look at Grand Rapids. West Michigan is growing nicely and downtown GR is a lot of fun.

      Take care!

  18. gibor says

    I personally check sometime those graphs, but never did purchase based on them… Last time I checked I thing the most undervalues company was AAPL

    • says

      gibor,

      I don’t pay a lot of attention to graphs and charts, but when I see very few attractively valued companies I’ll head over and take a look at the broader market’s valuation (Shiller PE). When that’s fairly elevated, like it is today, I then get a little concerned.

      Best wishes!

  19. gibor says

    DM, what do you think about MCD at current level? It dropped today after Q report, have reasonable P/E of 18 and gonna increase dividend next Quarter..

    • says

      gibor,

      I think MCD is fairly valued today. If it started dropping back down towards $90 I would be interested in adding to my position. If I didn’t already have a fairly large position in the company and were instead initiating a new position today’s price might offer a decent time to start buying some shares and look to scale into it at cheaper prices if possible.

      Best regards!

    • gibor says

      I have a very small position in MCD, just 45 shares that bought about 1 year ago just below $90…. want to add more shares… maybe if it goes down another couple of $

    • says

      Not Working,

      Long time, no see! I hope all is well.

      I wouldn’t mind investing in BCE. That being said, when I looked at the Canadian telecoms a few months ago I liked Telus the best. It seemed to offer the best growth prospects, overall. Although BCE also seemed like a fine choice. The entry yield is certainly enticing! It’s also trading at a reasonable valuation.

      I’ll have to take another look!

      Best wishes.

    • says

      Thanks for you answer :)

      I also hold Telus (since the recent drop) you are right about the growth perspective, Telus still only offers their tv and internet offers to the west of Canada only, this means potential expansion in the east of Canada (Toronto and Quebec). Love your blog, wish i could write good articles like yours !

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